OCTA: NCR COVID-19 positivity rate up; 2,000 daily cases possible by October

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Metro Manila (CNN Philippines, September 22) — Metro Manila could record around 2,000 daily COVID-19 cases by October, the OCTA Research group said Thursday, as it noted a rising positivity rate in the capital region.

In his latest report shared on social media, OCTA fellow Guido David said the weekly positivity rate in NCR increased to 17.5% on Sept. 21 from 14.3% on Sept. 14.

This matched the previous peak logged on Aug. 5, he added.

"It is now likely that this current resurgence will see higher positivity rates over the next weeks," David said. "It looks like the NCR will exceed 2000 cases per day by the start of October."

David, however, noted that the healthcare utilization rate in Metro Manila remained low.

The Philippines has listed over 14,000 cases in the past week — a daily average of 2,101 infections. Over 3.9 million individuals have caught the virus, based on latest government data.

Effect of F2F classes?

In a separate interview with CNN Philippines on Friday, David explained that the uptick in the COVID-19 metrics started around the first week of September.

"Hindi lang sa Metro Manila, kundi pati sa Rizal, sa Bulacan, sa Cavite, may bahagyang pagtaas," David told News Night.

[Translation: Not just in Metro Manila, but there's also a slight increase in Rizal, Bulacan, and Cavite.]

The increase "more or less" coincided with the resumption of face-to-face classes, according to David. But he clarified that only select regions recorded spikes in infections amid the eased policy.

"[H]indi naman tumataas 'yung cases all over the Philippines, kahit na nag-resume 'yung face-to-face classes," the OCTA fellow added.

[Translation: Cases all over the Philippines did not increase even with the resumption of face-to-face classes.]

The country listed over 14,000 cases in the past week — a daily average of 2,101 infections. Over 3.9 million individuals have caught the virus, based on latest government data.