OCTA: Metro Manila COVID-19 cases may peak by next week

enablePagination: false
maxItemsPerPage: 10
maxPaginationLinks: 10

Metro Manila (CNN Philippines, August 10) — The OCTA Research group projects that the number of COVID-19 cases in the National Capital Region may reach its peak by next week as several indicators decline.

"This once again gives us hope that the peak of the wave in the NCR may occur by next week (no guarantees, of course)," OCTA Research fellow Guido David said in a tweet Wednesday. "The trends need to be consistent for about a week before we can confidently say there is a downward trend."

David noted that the one week growth rate in Metro Manila went down to 5% with only 828 new infections recorded on Aug. 9, down from the 14% OCTA reported on Aug. 2.

The region's reproduction number -- or the number of people who can catch the virus from an infected person -- also declined to 1.17 from 1.24 a week ago.

NCR's positivity rate, which refers to the percentage of tested people with positive results, also declined to 15.9% as of Aug. 8, from 17.4% on Aug. 6. This was also a decline from 16.9% a week ago.

However, the positivity rate is still higher than the benchmark set by the World Health Organization at below 5%.

Meanwhile, Metro Manila's 7-day average slightly increased to 1,275 from 1,209, OCTA said. This led to an average daily attack rate -- or the number of daily new cases per 100,000 population -- of 8.85.

Healthcare utilization rate was at 35.7%, down from last week's 38%, while intensive care unit occupancy slightly increased to 31% from 30%.

On Monday, David said the COVID-19 wave is seen to extend until the so-called "ber" months, with several provinces recording very high positivity rates. 

Based on latest government data, there are over 3.8 million COVID-19 cases in the country, more than 36,000 of whom are currently ill patients.