NCR Plus Eight on downward COVID-19 trend, with reproduction numbers at 0.55 or below — OCTA

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Metro Manila (CNN Philippines, October 20) — Researchers have observed a downward trend in COVID-19 cases in the “NCR Plus Eight” bubble, with reproduction numbers at 0.55 or below.

In a social media post, OCTA Research Fellow Dr. Guido David said Wednesday that the National Capital Region’s COVID-19 reproduction number further dropped to 0.52 as of Oct. 19. This is lower than the previously reported 0.55, which was the lowest since May.

Meanwhile, all other areas under the bubble also have reproduction numbers of 0.55 or below. Bulacan has a reproduction number of 0.50; Cavite, 0.43; Laguna, 0.45; Rizal, 0.55; Pampanga, 0.52; Batangas, 0.51; Cebu City, 0.44; and Davao City, 0.49.

Reproduction number refers to the number of people that can be infected by a person in a particular population. Medical experts have reiterated that it should be one or less to say that the community transmission is decreasing.

Among the nine areas, Laguna has the highest positivity rate — or percentage of tested people with positive results — at 17%. Meanwhile, Cavite and Cebu City have the lowest positivity rate of 6%. NCR’s positivity rate, on the other hand, is at 8%.

NCR has the highest average daily attack rate at 8.79 and Cebu City has the lowest at 2.47.

In terms of healthcare utilization rate, Batangas has the highest at 54% while Cebu City has the lowest at 25%.

The OCTA Research also noted that intensive care utilization rate is highest in Davao City with 68%, followed by Rizal at 67% and Batangas, 65%. Bulacan has the lowest rate of 43%.

Until Oct. 31, NCR, Cavite, Laguna, and Rizal are all under Alert Level 3, while Batangas and Cebu City are under Alert Level 2.