UP experts: PH 'healing' but MGCQ in Metro Manila not advised; 410k COVID-19 cases seen in October
Metro Manila (CNN Philippines, September 26) — The country is seeing improvements in the number of COVID-19 cases listed daily, but authorities should still be careful about easing restrictions as it could record up to over a hundred thousand more infections in the next month, experts said on Saturday.
The University of the Philippines OCTA research team presented new findings on the country's COVID-19 situation, noting a downward trend with less than 3,000 infections posted per day. Metro Manila, the country's outbreak epicenter, especially showed a decline of over 50 percent in its daily cases compared to five weeks ago, the team said in its report.
However, they were quick to note that some restrictions, such as the general community quarantine status in the capital region, must remain to sustain the gains in the past month.
"We are healing now but we are not there yet na fully healed," UP OCTA Fellow and UP Professor Guido David told CNN Philippines' Newsroom Weekend. "We would be careful not to move to MGCQ muna [yet] because we are not yet fully healed."
Government officials earlier floated the idea of downgrading the quarantine status in NCR to modified general community quarantine, relaxing more restrictions in areas.
UP OCTA projected in August that the total COVID-19 count would hit 310,000 or up to 330,000 by September 30. However, recent data showed that the most number of cases the country could have by that time would be between 310,000 and 315,000, which the experts said was a "very positive sign."
But the country's reproduction number, or rate of coronavirus transmission, is now at 0.82, which is still above the World Health Organization's ideal rate. With the current rate, the country could still see its total rising to 380,000 or at most 410,000 cases by October 31, according to the experts.
"Based on past data and trends, a premature downgrading of the quarantine status in the NCR may increase the risk of a surge in December around Christmas time," the UP OCTA report stated.
Apart from Metro Manila, which posts about 1,200 cases per day, the researchers also identified Bulacan, Batangas, Cavite, Laguna, Negros Occidental and Rizal as high-risk areas or places that record more than 100 cases per day, although these have decreased compared to previous figures. The team advised intensified testing, tracing and isolation to prevent a surge of infections.
Some provinces were also tagged as "emerging hotspots", such as Benguet (Baguio City), Iloilo (Iloilo City), Leyte (Tacloban), Misamis Oriental (Cagayan de Oro) and Nueva Vizcaya, where the number of new cases rose over a two-week period and was at least ten per million of the population per day.
Meanwhile, previously reported hotspots like Agusan Del Norte, Capiz, Davao Del Norte, Lanao Del Norte, Lanao Del Sur, Oriental Mindoro and South Cotabato have seen a decreasing trend.
The experts urged the government to monitor compliance with minimum health standards, such as the wearing of face masks and face shields, implement localized lockdowns with stricter border controls, and scale up capacities of the healthcare system.
