COVID-19 cases in PH could hit over half a million by end of 2020, UP forecast says

Metro Manila (CNN Philippines, September 2) —The coronavirus tally in the Philippines could average at around 585,000 before the year ends, based on a forecast by researchers from the University of the Philippines (UP).

The UP COVID-19 Pandemic Response Team on Wednesday updated its coronavirus dashboard to extend projections to cover up to Dec. 31 this year. 

The team indicated that the year-end COVID-19 figures could still go down to around 402,000 detected cases. But it could also reach as high as 767,000, depending on different factors that may affect viral transmission, detection of cases, and data reporting in the next four months.

Meanwhile, the team approximates that the country’s cases — including those undetected — may breach two million by the end of the year. This accounts for 1.85 percent of the country’s estimated population of 108 million.

For active COVID-19 cases or currently ill patients, figures could average at 68,000, according to the forecast. Depending again on various factors, this could hit as low as around 21,000 and as high as 116,000.

The researchers also calculate the country’s COVID-19 death toll to be anywhere between 5,000 to 10,000, with the projected average at 7,500 fatalities.

As of Sept. 2, the Department of Health reported that 226,440 in the country have fallen ill with the coronavirus. Of this number, 3,623 have lost their lives to the disease, while 158,610 have already recovered. 

Only Iligan City in Northern Mindanao is currently under a stricter modified enhanced community quarantine until Sept. 30 due to a spike in infections.

The country’s capital region Metro Manila — which accounts for more than half of the national tally of infections — remains under general community quarantine, along with Bulacan, Batangas, Tacloban City, and Bacolod City. The rest of the country has been placed under a more relaxed modified GCQ.